As Albania enters 2026, the country stands at a political and institutional crossroads shaped decisively by the shocks of 2025. What initially appeared to be a year of electoral routine and managed stability evolved instead into the most serious confrontation between executive power and the justice system since the launch of judicial reform. The outcome of this confrontation will determine not only Albania’s political trajectory, but also the credibility of its claim to be a serious candidate for European Union membership.
The defining feature of 2025 was the unprecedented reach of the Special Anti-Corruption and Organized Crime Structure (SPAK) into the very core of political power. The arrest of Tirana mayor Erion Veliaj widely seen as a potential successor to Prime Minister Edi Rama followed by criminal proceedings against Deputy Prime Minister Belinda Balluku, shattered a long-standing taboo in Albanian politics: the assumption that proximity to power guaranteed immunity. For the first time since the transition, investigations and indictments did not stop at the periphery of government but reached its nerve center.
This institutional breakthrough, however, immediately triggered resistance. The months that followed exposed a growing and increasingly open clash between the government and the justice system. Verbal attacks on prosecutors and judges, attempts to frame investigations as politically motivated, and the mobilization of party-controlled media against SPAK became routine. What had previously been discreet pressure transformed into a public campaign aimed at delegitimizing judicial institutions and eroding public trust in their independence.
The confrontation is set to intensify in January 2026, when Parliament is expected to decide whether to lift the immunity of Belinda Balluku, following SPAK’s request for her arrest. This vote will be more than a procedural step; it will be a fundamental test of the rule of law. The Balluku case has become a litmus test for equality before the law in a country where political power has historically shielded officeholders from accountability. Whether the governing majority allows the arrest of the deputy prime minister or blocks it through parliamentary arithmetic will signal whether Albania’s justice reform is irreversible or conditional.
The stakes extend beyond a single individual. According to investigative reporting and judicial filings, SPAK is preparing additional charges, potentially including corruption and money laundering, with new indictments expected early in the year. If confirmed, these moves would push the confrontation further, raising the question of whether the government will tolerate the arrest of a sitting deputy prime minister or attempt to draw a red line around the executive.
Parallel to the high-profile political cases, 2025 revealed another destabilizing reality: the deep penetration of organized crime into state institutions. The investigation into a structured criminal group operating within the National Agency for Information Society (AKSHI) one of the most sensitive institutions for national digital infrastructure has exposed alarming vulnerabilities. The arrest of AKSHI’s director and deputy director, alongside evidence pointing to coordination between political intermediaries, senior police officials, and criminal networks, suggests the existence of a parallel power structure operating behind formal institutions.
The figure of Ergys Agasi, currently a fugitive, has become emblematic of this phenomenon. With no formal government position, Agasi is alleged by prosecutors and investigative journalists to have acted as a nexus between political power, the executive bureaucracy, organized crime, and major corruption schemes. Allegations that he influenced police appointments across the country and benefited from large-scale construction projects point to a dangerous fusion of criminal capital and state authority. The unanswered question where his power truly came from cuts to the heart of Albania’s governance crisis.
These revelations reinforce a broader pattern: systemic corruption driven by the convergence of political elites, oligarchic business interests, and organized crime. Investigations involving major construction projects, public procurement, and food supply chains suggest that state capture is not episodic but structural. The construction boom, particularly in Tirana and along the coast, has emerged as a key vector of this capture. According to recent research by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Tirana, a significant portion of real estate development is financed by illicit funds linked to organized crime and corruption, distorting the economy and entrenching informal power networks.
As Albania looks toward 2026, the implications are profound. A decisive year lies ahead in which the justice system must prove that it can withstand political pressure and dismantle entrenched criminal-political alliances. At the same time, the government faces a choice: to respect judicial independence even when it threatens its own survival, or to assert political control at the cost of democratic credibility.
Beyond institutional conflict, 2026 may also prove decisive for Albania’s social and demographic future. Continued emigration at current rates risks pushing the country toward demographic collapse, undermining economic sustainability and national security. If public confidence in the rule of law erodes further, the incentive to leave will only intensify.
In this sense, 2026 could mark either a turning point or a regression. It may bring the end of a political class that has thrived within a deeply corrupt system, opening space for institutional renewal. Alternatively, it could confirm that even the most ambitious reforms remain vulnerable to capture. The outcome will be visible quickly starting with Parliament’s decision on Balluku and will resonate far beyond Albania’s borders, shaping how Europe assesses the country’s readiness to join its political and legal order.
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