TIRANA, Albania — Albania’s ruling Socialist Party secured another sweeping victory in the May 11 parliamentary elections, but analysts say the most significant result wasn’t who won—but who wasn’t there to vote.
Official data from the Central Election Commission indicate that at least 200,000 fewer people voted in 2025 compared to the last general election in 2021. While some might point to voter apathy or protest abstentions, demographic and migration data suggest a different story: the missing voters have likely left the country.
Between 2021 and 2025, Albania appears to have lost nearly 400,000 citizens, with the electoral roll shrinking dramatically across both urban and rural areas. In the view of many observers, this exodus has effectively tipped the electoral scales in favor of Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialist Party, which now enters its 13th year in power.
During a campaign rally in the village of Petrelë near Tirana on April 28, Prime Minister Rama painted a picture of returning emigrants investing in the countryside. But the reality on the ground tells a different story. Voter rolls in Petrelë have declined by 6% over the last four years—a relatively modest drop compared to national trends, but part of a wider pattern of demographic erosion.
Across the country, the electoral map shows significant declines in voter turnout that correlate closely with depopulation. Data analyzed by BIRN show that the drop was not limited to economically distressed or remote areas. High-income neighborhoods in Tirana, such as those surrounding the former Communist Bloc and upscale residential zones, saw participation drop by 6–7%. Poorer districts and peripheral zones recorded losses of up to 17%.
Urban Exodus and Rural Collapse
The national decline in voter participation is stark: 12% of eligible voters from 2021 failed to show up in 2025—a figure that equates to roughly 200,000 people. But rather than reflecting civic disengagement, these absences point to a massive wave of emigration. Estimates suggest that Albania is now losing more than 50,000 citizens per year, a dramatic acceleration of outflows that began in the early 1990s. In Berat County, voter rolls shrank by 17% over four years. The Socialist Party lost 5,500 votes in raw numbers but still improved its share from 56% to nearly 58%. In Korça, where the voting population declined 16%, the Socialists’ vote count dropped by 3,300 but their percentage increased from 49% to 54%. Similar trends were seen in Elbasan, Fier, and other regions. The one partial exception was Tirana, where only 7.2% of voters disappeared. Yet even in the capital, the Socialists lost 19,000 votes and their share dipped slightly from 48.7% to 48%.
State Leverage and Electoral Stability
Analysts say the shrinking electorate has created more favorable conditions for the Socialists, who maintain strong influence through public sector employment and centralized control over state resources. Employment in central and local government remains one of the most dependable vote generators, even as Albania’s working-age population dwindles.
“There is no evidence of a boycott,” a political analyst familiar with the CEC data told BIRN. “What we’re seeing is that people who once voted—regardless of party—have simply left the country.” This quiet erosion of the electorate coincides with growing concerns about Albania’s long-term economic sustainability. The latest census shows a decline from 2.82 million in 2021 to around 2.4 million in 2023. More recent data suggest the trend is accelerating. While official GDP growth remains strong, experts warn that the exodus undermines domestic productivity and worsens Albania’s demographic dependency ratio.
Economic Growth, But for Whom?
Albania’s economy has grown steadily in recent years, driven largely by construction and tourism. Yet these sectors have not created enough incentive for Albanians to stay—or to return. Far from reversing migration, economic growth appears to be reinforcing it.
Data from the Institute of Statistics (INSTAT) show four consecutive years of decline in agricultural output, coinciding with the depopulation of rural areas. Manufacturing exports, particularly in textiles and footwear, have also fallen, likely due to labor shortages caused by migration.
The problem, experts say, is not just the quantity of growth but its distribution and durability. While construction and tourism boom in coastal cities and Tirana, much of the country continues to hollow out.
A Structural Shift
Census figures and electoral data together suggest that Albania’s internal migration—long a defining feature of post-Communist development—has given way to a more terminal trend. Urbanization is slowing. Emigration is accelerating. And even traditionally stable urban centers like Tirana are not immune.
Between 2021 and 2025, Tirana’s administrative units recorded a net loss of over 27,000 voters. Only a few peripheral areas—like Kashar, Farkë, and Dajt—showed any growth in voter numbers, likely due to residential sprawl rather than natural increase or return migration.
Outside the capital, the picture is even bleaker. Urban areas lost around 9% of their voter base, while rural and small-town regions saw declines averaging 14%.
Democracy and Demography
The implications go beyond party politics. Albania’s electoral future is being shaped not just by who votes—but by who remains. The demographic decline is changing the composition of the electorate, weakening opposition parties, and reinforcing incumbency.
If the current trend holds, experts warn, Albania risks entering a feedback loop where declining population drives further centralization of power, state dependence, and ultimately democratic stagnation.
With more than 400,000 Albanians believed to have left since 2021, the 2025 elections may be remembered not for who won—but for how many simply vanished.
This news analysis was also based on the article “The Missing Voters in the Parliamentary Elections” by Gjergj Erebara, published on Reporter.al.
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