Iceland’s referendum on restarting European Union membership talks could change the current EU enlargement landscape. It could also create new momentum for countries seeking to join the bloc.
Icelanders will vote on August 29. They will decide whether their country should resume accession negotiations with the EU. However, the referendum is advisory. It does not decide whether Iceland will ultimately join the Union.
The vote comes at an important moment for EU enlargement. Albania and Montenegro currently lead the accession process among the Western Balkan countries. However, Iceland could quickly become a strong contender if voters support the return to negotiations.
Iceland already has close ties with the EU
Iceland presents a special case because it already has strong links with the European Union.
The country belongs to the European Economic Area and the Schengen Area. It also applies many European rules and participates in several EU policies.
Therefore, Iceland would not need to make the same scale of legal, institutional and political changes as other candidate countries.
If Iceland resumes negotiations, it could move through the remaining stages much faster than most other candidates.
What does this mean for Albania?
A positive vote would not directly slow Albania’s EU accession process. Nevertheless, it could change the ranking of the most advanced candidates.
Iceland previously opened accession negotiations in 2010. It opened 27 chapters and provisionally closed 11 before suspending the process in 2013.
By contrast, Albania continues to advance through its own negotiations.
Therefore, if Iceland returns to the process, it could potentially move ahead of Albania because it already meets many EU standards.
Albanian Foreign Minister Ferit Hoxha, however, does not view enlargement as a competition.
He said every European country has the right to choose its own path toward integration. Moreover, he argued that Iceland’s renewed interest in the EU would show that the European project remains attractive and strategically important.
Montenegro remains a leading candidate
Montenegro currently holds the strongest position among the Western Balkan candidates.
It has provisionally closed 18 of its 33 negotiating chapters. As a result, Podgorica remains ahead in the accession process.
Montenegro’s European Affairs Minister Maida Gorčević said the country welcomes every step that makes Europe more united and stronger.
At the same time, she stressed that Montenegro does not see enlargement as a zero-sum competition.
In other words, Iceland’s progress would not necessarily come at Montenegro’s expense.
Iceland would bring a different economic profile
Iceland would also stand out because of its economic position.
If it joined the EU, Iceland would likely become one of the bloc’s wealthiest members in terms of income per capita. Consequently, it could become a net contributor to the EU budget.
Albania and Montenegro would have a very different relationship with EU funds. Both countries would likely become net beneficiaries.
A net beneficiary receives more money from the EU than it contributes. Conversely, a net contributor pays more into the EU budget than it receives.
Iceland’s small population would also make its integration relatively easy for the EU to absorb. The country has almost 60% fewer inhabitants than Montenegro.
Meanwhile, Albania has a much larger population and a lower income level. Therefore, it would likely receive significantly more EU financial support after membership.
Why is the referendum important?
The referendum could have consequences beyond Iceland.
First, a “yes” vote would show that EU membership remains attractive even to a wealthy country that already has close economic ties with Europe.
Second, it could create fresh political momentum for EU enlargement.
Third, it could encourage other candidate countries by demonstrating that the accession process remains open.
For Albania, this could create a new competitive dynamic. However, Tirana argues that Iceland’s progress could actually strengthen the broader enlargement process.
Hoxha said stronger political support for enlargement would create a more positive environment for all candidate countries, including Albania.
Iceland could move quickly
Iceland began its accession process in 2010 but suspended negotiations three years later.
If voters approve a return to negotiations, the process could resume from where it stopped. The 11 chapters already provisionally closed would not need to reopen.
Furthermore, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said Iceland could potentially complete negotiations within one to two years.
Iceland’s existing participation in the European single market would help accelerate the process.
However, membership would not happen immediately after negotiations end.
Iceland would still need to make constitutional changes to allow the transfer of certain sovereign powers to the EU.
Under Icelandic rules, Parliament must first approve the constitutional amendment. Then, general elections must take place. Finally, the newly elected Parliament must approve the same amendment again.
A new dynamic for EU enlargement
Ultimately, Iceland’s referendum could add a new dimension to Europe’s enlargement debate.
Albania and Montenegro will continue their own accession processes. At the same time, Iceland could re-enter the race with a significant advantage because of its existing integration with the EU.
Therefore, a “yes” vote would not simply concern Iceland’s future. It could also influence the wider political debate about EU enlargement and reshape the position of the countries currently leading the accession process.
For Albania, the message is clear: Iceland’s possible return could increase competition, but it could also strengthen the wider European project and create greater political support for enlargement.
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