By DEMUSH SHASHA
While 20 seconds of Ambassador Hill’s tweets shatter 20 years of illusion in Kosovo, they are also useful starting points for reassessing our way forward. Our way forward is the quagmire, where Kurti’s political clean shirt must be submerged to pull us out of the deluge in deep international waters.
Kosovo is good, Serbia is bad and the West supports Kosovo. Simplifying, but not too much, this is essentially the belief of the majority of Kosovo’s citizens. That was the belief in 1999 and that is the belief today. But that 20-year-old belief was shattered in 20 seconds by a video posted on Twitter by the US ambassador to Belgrade, Mr. Christopher Hill.
In the video, Ambassador Hill is seen inside a military tent surrounded by Serbian and American soldiers who are observing the “Platinum Wolf” exercise together. The video’s background noise of helicopters and gunfire only further dramatized the apostate scenes of joint exercises by Serbian and NATO forces. Although the “Platinum Wolf” exercise has been held almost every year since 2014, this was the first military exercise that the Serbian state has held with foreign forces after the imposition of a moratorium on military exercises in February 2022. Holding the first military exercise with NATO forces for the West is seen as Serbia’s move towards the West and away from Russia. Therefore, the spokesperson of the American Embassy in Belgrade said: “Serbia has chosen to be part of the West, and this includes further integration with Euro-Atlantic security structures and partner armies.”
Despite the anti-Western rhetoric and the official stance of military neutrality, year after year Serbia has deepened its relations with NATO, raising it today to the highest level that a non-member country can do with NATO. In 2006, Serbia joined the partnership for peace and established the Liaison Office in Belgrade. In 2009, Serbia and NATO agreed on the First Individual Partnership Program. In 2015, they agreed on the First Two-Year Action Plan for the Individual Partnership Program, and in the same year, Serbia ratified the Status of Forces Agreement with NATO (SOFA). Over the years, the number of joint exercises with NATO has exceeded many times the number of those with Russia. And most importantly in today’s context, Serbia has joined the West’s military efforts in support of Ukraine by providing arms and ammunition to Ukraine.
In addition to deepening military integration with NATO, Serbia over the years has advanced its journey towards the EU. In 2012 it gained the status of a candidate country, while in 2014 it opened membership negotiations. To date, it has opened 22 of the 35 negotiating chapters. In an economic sense, the EU is by far Serbia’s most important trading partner: 60% of Serbia’s trade is with the EU, while 63% of foreign direct investment in Serbia comes from the EU. From 2009 to 2021, Serbian exports to the EU have increased fivefold, reaching a record amount of 14 billion euros.
None of this happened at once. These are the result of twenty years of Western political investment in the slow transformation of Serbia from an enemy on its knees in war to an ally exalted in peace. And for 20 years in Kosovo we have closed our eyes to this tectonic change in our region. Today – in particular due to the dynamics cascaded by the war in Ukraine – the citizens of Kosovo are obliged to face the new reality. Therefore, Hill’s 20-second video was a shock to many in Kosovo. These 20 seconds beautifully reflect the radical change of our region in the last 20 years. 20 years ago, Kosovo was a partner, and Serbia was a problem; Today, Kosovo is a problem, and Serbia is a partner. 20 years ago Serbia was prosecuted for war crimes, today Kosovo is prosecuted for war crimes. Today, while Kosovo’s joint exercise with NATO troops “Defender 2023” is canceled, NATO is happy with the joint exercise “Platinum Wolf” with Serbia.
Not to accept this change in the Western posture towards the region is to be intellectually myopic and politically opportunistic. And while this is clearly the new reality of the region, the question that remains is how we will position ourselves against this reality. Going down the suicidal path by starting conflicts with allies is a dead end. Kosovo has neither the capacity nor the means to influence the changing winds and interests of the great powers in our region. The West does not love Serbia over emotions, but over interests. Serbia is the largest country in the region in every sense of the word: geographically, militarily and economically. Consequently, our allies understand that without anchoring Serbia in the Euro-Atlantic structures, there is no Euro-Atlantic Balkans. And our allies believe this is possible. In the end, if they managed to modernize a Nazi Germany and an imperial Japan, they will certainly manage to modernize a Serbia kneeling in its smallest historical borders.
Against this background, the road ahead for Kosovo is clear, but difficult. We should not deceive ourselves that our further opening within the dialogue with Serbia will be easy. It will involve compromises on both sides. As for our side, despite two years of “new dialogue” led by Kurti, almost nothing is fundamentally new. The association (or self-management, choose as you like) remains the epicenter of the advancement of dialogue. As if the epicenter of the advancement of the dialogue remains Kurt’s willingness to sacrifice his clean political shirt to get the state out of the international flood. There is nothing noble about standing on the moral high ground when the state is drowning in international waters. To believe that Thaçi, Isa or Ramushi enjoyed the concessions imposed by the dialogue with Serbia is naive. They have realized that in real life you often have to choose between the lesser of evils. And, also, they have understood that in the life of every politician there comes a time when he has to sacrifice a part of himself for the interests of the state. Have they seen any personal gain in all this? Perhaps, but find a man on this sinful globe of ours who cannot be accused of opportunism?
Either way, it’s history. Kurti has been leading a “new dialogue” for two years now. We cannot say that it has been unsuccessful. It is a respectable success that Kurti has managed to re-negotiate Kosovo’s compensation for the establishment of the Association. Before Kurti, the establishment of the Association was simply a singular international obligation of Kosovo. Today, the establishment of the Association is covered with important benefits for Kosovo within the framework of the Franco-German proposal. But these benefits await the rise of the Association, so now is the time for the prime minister to sacrifice Albin the opposition to win Kurt the statesman. And the beauty of this is that Kurti will not be alone in this journey. Most of the citizens will accompany Kurt on this noble journey. Citizens cannot support Kurti in the adventures of the ridiculous administration of four municipal buildings, but most citizens will be masters of their country if the establishment of the Association will endanger the citizenship of Kosovo. Therefore, Kurti needs a new narrative. A narrative behind which most citizens can unite.
