Ilir Ikonomi, author, journalist, AIIS Associate
In your opinion what were the factors that prompted Trump’s election victory?
Donald Trump had a strong, dedicated, and enthusiastic base of support throughout the election process. His message was focused heavily on issues, such as immigration, the economy, and national security, that Americans deeply care about. His populist appeal drew millions of voters who felt left behind by traditional, tired politicians. In particular, his economic messaging resonated with many Americans who realized that a Trump presidency would focus on job creation, economic growth, and tax cuts. Trump also focused on being tough on crime. His first administration’s pushback on “defund the police” calls was proven to be correct. Many Americans support a president who takes seriously rising crime rates and safety in urban areas. In addition, Trump again showed great skills in using social media and engaged voters by showing up in hundreds of rallies across the battleground states. His Democratic contender entered relatively late in the game without going through the primaries, which weakened it significantly.
What will the Trump presidency 2.0 bring for American democracy and American citizens?
The new Trump presidency marks a significant moment for American democracy, possibly ushering in a new era if it is handled in a moderate fashion to convince the Democrats that they have a lot to gain if they work with the new administration. The new presidency will likely spark debates on the direction of the nation and could deepen the divides, but the popular vote won by Trump will teach the Democrats to moderate their stances on many issues. The new presidency is sure to bring more integrity to the election process, a theme that is near and dear to Trump supporters. This may involve increased scrutiny of voting laws as well as attempts to alter voting procedures. Some Democrats are concerned that this might affect voter rights and reduce access to voting for certain groups. The Trump presidency could intensify debates over the role and independence of key institutions like the media, the Department of Justice, the FBI, and the Department of Homeland Security. I think, ultimately it will bring more responsibility to all these institutions and induce them to learn from past mistakes. I believe existing fears that a Trump presidency could sap the strength of these democratic institutions will die down. In economic terms, Americans stand to benefit from Trump’s policies, which are geared to bring more growth in certain sectors. His tax reforms may favor the rich, but overall the nation will see more prosperity, as was the case with his first term. We will wait to see how Trump will handle the huge and growing national deficit but overall, we stand to witness more truthfulness and transparency in this area. Trump will continue to explain why illegal immigration is bad for America and this is welcome to large swaths of the American population.
What is the likely foreign policy course of the second Trump administration?
The second Trump presidency will focus on “America First” policies with an eye toward preserving foreign alliances and trade deals when this is possible. Whether this administration will be more isolationist in foreign policy than his first one remains to be seen, but so far Trump has not indicated that he intends to sabotage global security strategies.
How will Trump change the world: Russia/Ukraine, the Middle East conflict, the transatlantic relations?
Trump’s Ukraine policy is expected to change from the current administration’s policy. Trump has indicated that he would cut aid to Ukraine and negotiate a peace deal with Russia. This may have been campaign rhetoric, but all signs point to a significant change in dealing with this conflict. Trump will attempt to negotiate a compromise with President Putin, and many Americans have high hopes that he can succeed. Trump sees this as very important for the overall success of his presidency and his own legacy. However, he has not indicated how he will bring the conflict to a plausible, speedy conclusion. Trump is also expected to emphasize support for Israel while maintaining a confrontational stance towards Iran. The new administration might reduce the U. S. engagement to resolve the Middle East conflict in line with its isolationist approach. As for the transatlantic relations, Trump might push for higher defense contributions from NATO countries. He could threaten those nations with reduced U.S. engagement or call for a “dormant NATO” if they fail to meet his demands. European nations may see new trade tensions with the Trump administration, which might accuse them of unfair trade practices.
Will Western Balkans receive any attention in Trump 2.0 diplomacy? What are the expected changes?
The policy on Western Balkans will not be a primary focus for the Trump administration, as was clear in his first administration. That policy will be shaped by broader foreign policy goals. President Trump might attempt to normalize the relations between Kosovo and Serbia primarily through economic cooperation, involving infrastructure projects and private investments. This approach was not given enough time to implement during his first term, but the administration could strive to revive such initiatives, prioritizing economic diplomacy over political deals, without neccessarily addressing the issues of sovereignty and recognition for Kosovo. One goal Trump administration might seek to pursue is to attempt to reduce Russia’s influence in the region. It might also pursue growth creation for the sake of stemming Chinese influence. I believe the new Trump administration will not fail to see that both Russian and Chinese influences in the Western Balkans are part of a bigger play for expansion in Europe and therefore worthy of more attention and resources. There is no reason for Mr. Trump not to encourage Albania to strengthen its EU accession progress and increase stability. However, Albania is perceived as a deeply corrupt nation with an abnormal state of democracy. Its political opposition is under constant harassment and threat by a government that enjoyed full support of the Biden administration. The opposition had been waiting anxiously for a Trump win and has placed high hopes in the new U.S. administration. Will this state of affairs change under the Trump administration or will Albania, a NATO country, be left alone to solve its own problems? This is a big question mark and it remains to be seen how the new State Department deals with it. However, it is doubtful that the new U.S. administration will take a hands-on approach when it comes to this and similar other problems affecting the messy business of the Western Balkans.
