By Genc Pollo
TIRANA, Albania – On November 4, as every year, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos presented the European Commission’s progress reports on the ten countries aspiring to European Union membership before the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET). She outlined the Commission’s assessment of each country and responded to questions from members of the European Parliament.
Four main conclusions emerge from the hearing.
Montenegro: EU Membership in 2028?
According to the European Commission, Montenegro is the only candidate country with a realistic prospect of joining the EU in the foreseeable future. Commissioner Kos suggested that June 2028 would be a reasonable target for signing the EU Accession Treaty, with accession negotiations expected to conclude by the end of this year.
This confirms our previous assessment that Montenegro stands a genuine chance of becoming the EU’s 28th member state. Nevertheless, it would be premature to consider accession a certainty. Ratification of the treaty by all 27 current member states, including France, cannot be taken for granted.
Albania and Eight Other Candidates: Marking Time?
Commissioner Kos acknowledged that Albania and Moldova aim to close their negotiating chapters by the end of 2027 or early 2028. She considered this timetable achievable, provided the necessary conditions are met. A similar assessment applies to Ukraine, although its projected timetable extends several months beyond that of Albania and Moldova.
Unlike Montenegro, however, there was no indication of when an accession treaty might be signed. Indeed, the word “accession” itself appeared to have been carefully avoided.
The remaining six candidates — Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey and Georgia — have made no meaningful progress, whether because of domestic difficulties or external obstacles. Nor was any timetable offered for their next steps.
Phased Accession: The Only Realistic Alternative?
Commissioner Kos explained that, following the conceptual work undertaken in Brussels on “phased accession,” the Commission intends to begin discussions with candidate countries in early 2027. These consultations will explore how candidates envisage their gradual inclusion in EU institutions and programmes that have so far been reserved for member states.
For the past three years, we have repeatedly argued that phased accession offers the only realistic path towards effective integration into the European Union. Montenegro’s possible accession is the exception that confirms this emerging rule for the remaining candidates.
For Albania in particular, it would be beneficial if the EU applied conditionality seriously and rigorously at every stage of integration. The emphasis on Albania is deliberate. Over the past decade, specific conditions formally adopted in the enlargement process have too often been diluted, particularly by the European Commission.
The argument for enlargement on geopolitical grounds, repeatedly invoked during the four years since Russia’s aggression against Ukraine began, also carries less weight in Albania’s case. Albania’s European and Euro-Atlantic orientation enjoys broad political and social consensus. Under these circumstances, the geopolitical rationale for accelerating enlargement largely loses its relevance.
Reducing the Protests to Environmental Concerns: Another Potemkin Façade
Commissioner Kos, a Slovenian Social Democrat, supported by the European Parliament’s rapporteur for Albania, Andreas Schieder, an Austrian Social Democrat, portrayed the months-long protests in Albania as essentially a dispute over environmental standards. Both suggested that the government should amend legislation concerning environmental protection and strategic investors and engage in dialogue with protesters on these issues. This portrayal is yet another manifestation of the misleading narrative promoted by the European Commission over the past decade in support of Edi Rama’s authoritarian and kleptocratic regime. The commissioner and the rapporteur know perfectly well that the protesters’ principal demands are Rama’s resignation and the establishment of a one-year caretaker government to prepare genuinely competitive parliamentary elections. Yet they prefer to construct a parallel reality. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has followed a similar approach. During her recent visit to Tirana, she opened her remarks with the cynical greeting “Dear Edi,” just as, until recently, she would begin her speeches in Belgrade with “Dear Aleksandar.” A year earlier, Commissioner Kos described Albania’s 2025 parliamentary elections as “free and fair,” contradicting both her own Commission’s assessment and the findings of the OSCE.
These are hardly isolated examples.
Admittedly, the Commission’s progress reports have shown some modest improvement over the past three years, introducing more realistic nuances in their analyses of the rule of law and democratic standards. But these limited improvements cannot compensate for the political propaganda delivered by senior EU officials before television cameras. The reports themselves are read by relatively few people and are soon forgotten. The public statements, by contrast, leave a lasting impression.
The causes of this approach may lie in naivety or cynicism. Its motives may be benign or otherwise. Whatever the explanation, the Commission’s conduct has become a factor perpetuating Albania’s current political crisis and, unfortunately, providing political oxygen to the regime. Fortunately, the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union, representing the member states, have at times demonstrated a more realistic and principled approach.
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